Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 50.603103 55.972511 62.013037 69.385713 78.245155 88.687207 102.141866
2025-01-26 45.094672 52.529256 61.648108 73.957134 90.652653 113.373358 148.398098
2025-02-02 42.297937 51.038543 62.429045 79.003254 103.777709 142.032044 212.482450
2025-02-09 39.257130 48.547595 61.188709 80.641079 112.035135 166.022801 283.913702
2025-02-16 36.354443 45.772136 59.003498 80.257528 116.738285 185.541423 362.389021
2025-02-23 34.056032 43.530511 57.209870 80.025209 121.442057 206.830352 468.475184
2025-03-02 31.728791 40.998537 54.650269 78.064174 122.433546 220.733595 573.651907
2025-03-09 29.839026 38.930978 52.561145 76.541856 123.854857 236.354773 716.787600
2025-03-16 27.680386 36.301429 49.349728 72.627639 119.594330 235.910960 790.228538
2025-03-23 27.148531 36.071822 49.910615 75.503306 130.312067 282.416625 1318.007046
2025-03-30 25.955389 34.737565 48.544657 74.608709 132.420233 304.684970 1847.986983
2025-04-06 24.682774 33.200506 46.719514 72.611202 131.503960 316.559534 2430.213222
2025-04-13 23.147663 31.237537 44.157325 69.138040 126.921467 315.238509 2922.813678
2025-04-20 23.059634 31.563988 45.519701 73.672803 144.019243 418.380800 19839.208054
2025-04-27 23.007061 31.933944 46.983537 78.688056 164.765081 582.961949 NaN
2025-05-04 22.468318 31.461830 46.886890 80.315498 176.369830 729.738399 NaN
2025-05-11 21.714733 30.581968 45.963545 79.934387 181.436984 847.005234 NaN
2025-05-18 21.040005 29.796355 45.152984 79.703543 187.075832 998.699752 NaN
2025-05-25 20.213882 28.710328 43.698003 77.754858 185.887702 1074.482541 NaN
2025-06-01 19.495746 27.777342 42.477569 76.242004 186.001219 1180.118459 NaN
2025-06-08 18.552610 26.419626 40.369268 72.351624 175.902368 1097.998598 NaN
2025-06-15 18.416656 26.453461 40.952575 75.209849 193.900218 1643.691953 NaN
2025-06-22 17.888740 25.776813 40.098741 74.320719 196.030270 1909.139100 NaN